“The stories of my demise are greatly exaggerated.” – Mark Twain (misattributed)
When college acceptance letters come out, it’s a good time to take stock of how enrollments are linked to macro trends in education. Demographics, shifts in enrollments and program development between institutions and corporations are all impacting the postsecondary education space. Educators who are able to align their offerings with these larger, macro trends will succeed.
Enrollment Trends: Short-term Growth with Long Term Pressure
NSC Research Center analysis shows short-term gains in postsecondary enrollment across undergraduate, traditional 18-year-olds, community colleges, graduate and certificate programs, continuing a rebound from the pandemic. Though total undergraduate enrollment is still down 1.0% from 2019. Hechinger reported a 15% drop in college enrollment between 2010 and 2021 and Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education predicts that the number of 18-year-olds graduating from high school each year will decline by 13%, or nearly half a million students, by 2041.
Structural Vulnerabilities in U.S. Higher Education
The US higher education system has proportionally more small and private institutions than other Western nations. These smaller institutions–defined as below 5,000 students–represented 75% of all degree-granting colleges eligible for Title IV federal financial aid in the Fall of 2021. Enrollment pressures have been most acute at institutions with enrollments below 1,000 students, down 36% between 2012 and 2021 as well as at larger institutions with enrollments between 20,000 and 29,999, which have declined 30%. Meanwhile, mega-universities, like WGU, SNHU, and ASU, have over 100,000 enrollments and are focused on delivering higher education at scale and affordably.
The Credential Revolution: New Pathways Forward
Students increasingly gravitate toward micro- and alternative credentials that offer lower costs and immediate skill development. Employers are following suit, actively reducing four-year degree requirements in hiring practices. In response, higher education institutions, startups, and corporations have expanded their credential offerings. Stackable credentials create valuable pathways allowing students to minimize financial risk while enhancing employability and potentially completing degrees.
Embracing Change While Enhancing Educational Value
Academic institutions have the opportunity to provide meaningful education to students throughout their postsecondary education. While demographic trends in traditional students will put pressure on traditional enrollment, the need for continuing education to support economic growth is another trend that can assist institutions that can embrace it. Coordinating these trends with academic imperatives will provide us with a system that will support our communities and economic potential.